There's no getting around that this year's edition of the Road to 272 Bets has been a rough one. While it wasn't a huge losing week, Week 7 was a looking performance nonetheless. The good news is that we still have over half the season to fight back, and that's exactly what I intend on doing.
Week 8 is a short slate of games with six teams on BYE, leaving only 13 games to watch and bet on. My picks for each game are locked in, so let's dive into them.
Road to 272 Bets Week 7 Record
7-8 (-1.43 units)
Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record
47-60-1 (-11.4 units)NFL Week 8 Best Bets for Every GameVikings vs. Chargers Prediction
The Chargers are in a world of hurt right now. They are lost without their two starting tackles, and now they have to take on one of the best blitzing teams in the NFL in the Minnesota Vikings. Whether it's a result of a banged-up offensive line or Justin Herbert failing to meet expectations this season, the results are the same nonetheless. The Chargers are now 23rd in the NFL in DVOA, 15th in EPA, and 19th in opponent EPA per play. Herbert is also 16th amongst starting quarterbacks in Expected Points Added plus Completion Percentage Over Expected, which is only one spot better than Mac Jones and one spot worse than Carson Wentz.
The Vikings' offense has had some problems of its own, but I can't bring myself to lay points on this Chargers team against a Vikings defense that has the third-highest sack percentage at 27.6%.
Dolphins vs. Falcons Prediction
It's important to have a short memory when it comes to the Atlanta Falcons. They're never as good as they look in their wins but never as bad as they look in their losses. They return home this week in a perfect bounce-back spot against an imploding Dolphins team that is on the verge of benching Tua Tagovailoa and firing Mike McDaniel.
The advanced metrics still love this Falcons team, ranking them 13th in DVOA with the No. 2-ranked defense in that stat. They're also seventh in the league in Net Yards per Play at +0.7. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 30th in DVOA and 29th in Net Yards per Play (-0.8).
It's time for the Falcons to bounce back.
Bears vs. Ravens Prediction
This is the perfect storm of a "buy-low" spot on the Baltimore Ravens and a "sell-high" spot on the Chicago Bears.
The Ravens are coming off their BYE week and are seemingly becoming a lot healthier on both sides of the ball. Most notably, Lamar Jackson is set to return to action, which makes a massive difference for this team's chances.
I'm also looking to sell on an over-performing Bears team. Yes, they have four straight wins, but those wins have come against the Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, and Saints, none of which are exactly the cream of the crop in the NFL. The last time the Bears faced a competent team, they lost 52-21 to the Lions.
The Ravens are going to announce their arrival on Sunday.
Browns vs. Patriots Prediction
The New England Patriots are likely a playoff team this season, but let's pump the brakes on this squad just a bit. The Patriots are 20th in the league in DVOA, largely due to their 28th-ranked defense. They're 25th in opponent dropback success rate, and they've allowed 5.6 yards per snap, which ranks 23rd in the league.
The Browns showed this past week that they're a step above the worst teams in the league, cruising past the Miami Dolphins in Week 7. Should the Browns be favored in this game? Absolutely not, but with the point spread set at the magic number of seven, I'll take the points with one of the best defenses in the league. This will be a tough matchup for Drake Maye.
Giants vs. Eagles Prediction
Two weeks ago, the Giants were 7.5-point home underdogs on a short week against the Eagles. Now, after a full week, the spread is almost the exact same with the Eagles are home. Unless that win against Philadelphia two weeks ago completely changed your opinion about these two teams, you have to think the Eagles are the side with value in the rematch.
Let's remember that even in that Week 6 win for the Giants, the Eagles averaged 6.1 yards per play compared to 5.5 by the Giants. Philadelphia seemingly figured things out in Week 7, winning and covering against the Vikings. I trust this coaching staff to right their wrongs from two weeks ago and even their season series against their divisional rival.
As fun as Jaxson Dart has been, the Giants' quarterback is 18th in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite, so let's not crown him anything more than what he is right now, which is a rookie quarterback that's going through some growing pains.
The Eagles win this one in impressive fashion.
49ers vs. Texans Prediction
The San Francisco 49ers have had the complete opposite season they had last year. In 2024, despite having some of the best metrics in the NFL, they continuously found themselves on the wrong side of variance, and their record was far worse than it should have been. This season, their metrics aren't nearly as good, but in-game variance has gone their way, and their record is far better than it likely should be.
The 49ers are just 18th in Net Yards per Play (0.0), 18th in DVOA, 16th in EPA per Play, and 18th in Opponent EPA per Play. As a result, I think this team is overvalued in the betting market. I'll trust the elite Texans' defense to give them some issues and cover as short favorites.
Bills vs. Panthers Prediction
I refuse to be impressed by the Panthers' three-game win streak, considering two of those three wins came against two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Dolphins and Jets. The Panthers have managed to not have to face an elite team all season until now, when they have to host the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills are fresh off a BYE week and will refuse to lose three straight games. Buffalo is starting to get healthy on defense, and I don't envision the Bills having much of an issue with a Panthers team that is 21st in DVOA, 21st in Net Yards per Play (-0.3), and in the bottom half of the league in offensive and defensive EPA.
This will be a statement win and cover for the Bills.
Jets vs. Bengals Prediction
Let's not start thinking this Bengals team is any good because they beat a divisional rival on a short week. The Bengals remain one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they have no business being this big of favorites against anyone, the winless Jets included. The Bengals rank 29th in DVOA, 31st in Net Yards per Play (-1.4), 25th in EPA per play, and 29th in opponent EPA per play. The Jets, on the other hand, rank 27th, 30th, 29th, and 27th in those respective stats.
From a pure metrics perspective, this game should be close to a coin flip. With that in mind, I'm going to take a shot on the Jets to win outright as my favorite upset pick of the week. Let's remember just how bad this Bengals team is.
Buccaneers vs. Saints Prediction
The Buccaneers aren't as good as their record suggests, and the advanced metrics indicate some regression is likely to come for this team. The Buccaneers are just 12th in the NFL in DVOA, including 17th on the defensive side of the ball. Their secondary has also struggled significantly, ranking in the bottom 10 in the NFL in almost every pass defense statistic.
I'm going to stick to my belief that the Buccaneers are going to come back down to earth. I'll take the points with the Saints.
Titans vs. Colts Prediction
The Indianapolis Colts are finally being looked at as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but I'm starting to think they should be treated in the betting market as the best team in the NFL. They are one of only four teams that rank inside the top 10 in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. They also rank fourth in Net Yards per Play (+0.9) and second in DVOA.
Meanwhile, the Titans are the worst team in the league, and firing their head coach didn't change things. They're last in DVOA, Net Yards per Play, and EPA. I'd be shocked if the Colts don't run away with this, won in a sweat-free victory.
Cowboys vs. Broncos Prediction
The Denver Broncos have somehow gone 3-0 in their last three games despite getting arguably outplayed in all three of them. They scored just 13 points against the Jets two weeks ago and were shut out through the first three quarters against the Giants.
Now, the Broncos have to take on a Cowboys team that has arguably the best offense in the NFL. Dallas ranks second in EPA per play, third in yards per play (6.1), and ninth in overall DVOA. The Broncos' offense has struggled against bad defenses already this season, so I'm not sure if I have faith in them to put up enough points in this one to keep pace with Dak Prescott and Co.
Packers vs. Steelers Prediction
The Green Bay Packers have managed to win their past couple of games, but they haven't been able to cover the spread. I think this is the week that the streak ends. The Packers are still sixth in DVOA, fourth in EPA per play, and second in Net Yards per Play at +1.2.
The Steelers showed last week that they might be more of a flawed team than we originally thought. They're just 15th in Net Yards per Play (0.0), and their defense is 25th in opponent EPA and 18th in opponent success rate. Don't fall into the trap of betting on the Steelers because it's an Aaron Rodgers "revenge game". The Packers are far and away the better team, and that's all that really matters.
Commanders vs. Chiefs Prediction
With Jayden Daniels' status still up in the air, I'm going to pass on betting on the side in this Monday Night Football showdown and bet on the OVER instead. This year's version of the Chiefs is more similar to the ones we saw in the early years of Patrick Mahomes' career. The offense has been the better unit, which is different from the defensive-minded teams of the past few years.
The Chiefs are third in the NFL in EPA per play and second in offensive DVOA. Meanwhile, their defense ranks worse in every metric compared to the past few seasons. If Daniels plays for the Commanders in this one, Washington should be able to string together enough good drives to contribute to the OVER.
