Everyone loves a good upset, but favorites dominated the opening week of the NFL season. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys were able to pull off the win as underdogs in Week 1.
As a result, only two members of the Sports Illustrated team correctly predicted their upset pick. Matt Verderame correctly picked the Cowboys to upset the Cleveland Browns and Mitch Goldich predicted the Steelers to take down the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta.
It's time to look ahead to Week 2 including which game each member of the Sports Illustrated team is eyeing an upset.
Albert Breer, Senior NFL Reporter (0-1, -1 unit)Connor Orr, Senior Writer (0-1, -1 unit)Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer (1-0, +1.14 units)Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer (0-1, -1 unit)Jennifer Piacenti, Senior Betting and Fantasy Analyst (0-1, -1 unit)Peter Dewey, Senior Editor Betting (0-1, -1 unit)Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor Betting (0-1, -1 unit)Mitch Goldich, Senior Editor (1-0, +1.24 units)
Let's take a look at everyone's upset pick for Week 2 action. All odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Albert Breer Week 2 Upset PickBrowns +136 vs. Jaguars
Cleveland played about as poorly as possible in Week 1—with a new offensive coordinator, two backup tackles, no Nick Chubb, and a subpar performance for the star quarterback. Not all those things will be amended in Week 2. But some of them should be. And the defense really seemed to catch its stride in the second half against Dallas.
So while the Jags are tough, going to Florida in September is always a challenge, I see Kevin Stefanski’s team responding in a game that’s being seen in Northeast Ohio, fair or not, as a pivot point for the group.
Connor Orr Week 2 Upset PickSaints +235 vs. Cowboys
Why not gamble that New Orleans’ feisty Week 1 wasn’t an aberration? Derek Carr isn’t going to sit in the pocket and wait for Micah Parsons like Deshaun Watson did a week ago and while the Saints have their own issues upfront, this is a team that can protect itself via the scheme slightly better.
New Orleans beat the breaks off Carolina last week and could sustain the momentum to go 2-0.
Matt Verderame Week 2 Upset PickBills +114 vs. Dolphins
Maybe this is the easy choice, but it’s the right one. The Bills have demolished the Dolphins throughout Josh Allen’s career, as he sports a 10–2 record heading into Thursday night against Miami. While Buffalo is beat up on defense without All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano and potentially sans the services of star slot corner Taron Johnson, the offense could carry the day. If this comes down to a shootout between Allen and Tua Tagovailoa, I know who I’m taking.
Gilberto Manzano Week 2 Upset PickTitans +142 vs. Jets
The Titans’ dominant defensive performance was lost after the offense and special teams contributed to the team’s 17-point collapse in the Week 1 loss against the Bears. Tennessee’s ferocious front could be better this season with how well rookie defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat played in his regular-season debut.
This could be a matchup nightmare for the New York Jets with 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who looked his age, moving slowly against the 49ers. I’m expecting the Jets to be better after facing a Super Bowl contender on the road, but they look far from being a playoff team. It’s worth the risk to take the home dog with big dogs up front.
Peter Dewey Week 2 Upset PickBills +114 vs. Dolphins
Both Buffalo and Miami had to come from behind to win in Week 1, but I’m worried about the Dolphins on a short week with De’Von Achane (ankle) banged up.
The Dolphins needed a gift of a fumble from Travis Etienne on the goal line to get back in the game in Week 1, and their offense didn’t look great outside of an 80-yard touchdown strike to Tyreek Hill.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen rallied the Bills from a 17-3 deficit to beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, throwing for two scores and rushing for two more. The Dolphins did shut down Trevor Lawrence and company in the second half in Week 1, but Allen is a much different animal.
Including the playoffs, Buffalo has won 11 of the last 12 games in this matchup, including the matchup in Miami last season.
I’ll ride with the Bills on a short week.
Jennifer Piacenti Week 2 Upset PickBills +114 vs. Dolphins
I’m not sure how the Bills are underdogs in this one, even without home field advantage.
Josh Allen is special. Last week vs. the Cardinals, Allen had four total touchdowns- two of which he ran in himself. In two regular-season games vs. the Dolphins last season, Allen completed 81% of his passes, averaging 340 passing yards and 42 rushing yards per game with seven total touchdowns. The Dolphins were able to hold Trevor Lawrence to just 162 passing yards and a single touchdown in Week 1, but Josh Allen is a much bigger threat- even with limited pass-catching options.
Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid should get attention vs. a Miami defense that allowed a 75% catch rate to opposing wide receivers in Week 1. The Dolphins allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to Jacksonville running backs last week. Expect both Josh Allen and James Cook will be using their legs on Thursday.
Dolphins runners averaged just 3.24 yards per carry last Sunday, and now to start the short week, both De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are banged up. On paper, the Miami offense is far more stacked with a menacing run game and one of the best wide receiver pairs in the NFL in Hill and Waddle. But, until I see them play like they look on paper, it’s hard to back them to beat their division rivals.
In their five matchups across the last 3 seasons, Buffalo has the better record at 4-1.
Mitch Goldich Week 2 Upset PickBills +114 vs. Dolphins
I see this game is a popular pick, so I won’t belabor the point. I’ll just add that I think the Dolphins have had a real home-field advantage in past Septembers, with teams playing in the heat in Miami before they’re at midseason conditioning form—but I think a night game may mitigate that a bit, in addition to the fact that Thursday night games are often just weird. These are evenly-matched teams, and I think both of them got wake-up calls with early deficits in Week 1. But give me the Bills to keep it rolling on the road.
Iain MacMillan Week 2 Upset PickSaints +235 vs. Cowboys
The New Orleans Saints have looked good on paper the past couple of seasons, but ultimately failed to live up to expectations. While I'm trying not to overreact to a Week 1 blowout win against the lowly Panthers, I think it's possible we're seeing a Saints team finally come together. Derek Carr looked more comfortable in the offense and I like the shots he took down field, something missing from his game when playing with the Saints.
Then there are the Cowboys who took care of business against the Browns, but still managed only 4.4 yards per play. He completed just 19-of-32 passes for 179 yards and only one touchdown. Dallas benefited from abysmal offensive play from the Browns and did nothing to allow Cleveland back in the game.
I think the Saints have a better chance of winning this game than the odds indicate. They're my upset pick of the week.
