In the recent history of the Premier League there was an ‘original top 4’ which was made up of Man United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea. These teams were the only teams deemed capable of finishing in the top 4 Champions League spots, and certainly the only four title contenders, although only Chelsea or Man United were only considered as genuine title challengers.
That remained the case until Man City were bought out by their oil-rich owners and gradually forced themselves into the Champions League spots. Tottenham also took their chance to replace a weakened Chelsea in the 2011/12 season and finished in 4th but were not awarded with Champions League football after Chelsea won the European competition. Also with Man United recently dropping off with Sir Alex at the helm, Everton and Tottenham are the ‘outsiders’ who have joined the battle for the top spots.
However, is the gap between the top and bottom teams of the Premier League growing or shrinking? Have the sides without the money and history stood more of a chance of finishing higher in recent years?
Well, let’s first look at the point difference between 4th place and 18th place (the first relegation spot) over the past 10 Premier League seasons.
2013/14 – 46 2012/13 – 37 2011/12 – 33 2010/11 – 29 2009/10 – 40 2008/09 – 38 2007/08 – 40 2006/07 – 30 2005/06 – 33 2004/05 – 28 2003/04 – 27
The gap is not showing consistent growth over the ten year period chosen however, since the 2009/10 season the gap has grown significantly and consistently perhaps confirming the thought that the gap between the top and the bottom of the Premier League is stretching out.
It’s widely considered that there is currently a ‘top 7’ which are most likely to finish inside the Champions League spots. Therefore the chances of different teams finishing inside the Champions League positions is far greater than it once was. However, is there any proof to that? How has the point gap between 4th and 5th changed over the past 10 years?
2013/14 – 7 2012/13 – 1 2011/12 – 4 2010/11 – 6 2009/10 – 3 2008/09 – 9 2007/08 – 11 2006/07 – 8 2005/06 – 2 2004/05 – 3 2003/04 – 4
There is no real trend pattern to be seen although the gap grew from the 2005/06 season up until Man City arrived on the scene a few years after being taken over in 2008. There was a time when it was getting harder to finish in the top 4 but City played a big part in ending that trend and now the quality of the teams in general has risen and that’s why there is more of a top 7.
So what about relegation? If the quality has risen at the bottom of the table we would expect that picking up less points may be enough to survive relegation as the general quality of the league means that everyone can take points from each other. The figures below show the tally of points which the side who finished 17th, and therefore survived relegation, collected.
2013/14 – 36 2012/13 – 39 2011/12 – 37 2010/11 – 40 2009/10 – 35 2008/09 – 35 2007/08 – 36 2006/07 – 38 2005/06 – 38 2004/05 – 34 2003/04 – 35
Again there is no certain trend to be found, however interestingly the magic ’40’ points safety mark has only been necessary once in the last 10 years. The sides at the lower end of the table generally pick up the same amount of points each season regardless of the quality of themselves and the opposition, suggesting that there is no obvious increase in the quality of the sides who are getting relegated each season.
In summary it’s difficult to say if the gap between the top and bottom sides of the Premier League is growing or shrinking but one thing is for sure, there are more sides pushing for the top spots than ever before – even if there’s only one genuine title contender this season.
The sides who get relegated will be as bad relative to their fellow competitors as the sides who have been previously been relegated were in their year – proof that the Premier League’s relegation system is pretty clinical at relegating the deadwood sides each year, and helping to increase the general quality level of the division.
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