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INDIANAPOLIS — For all the hubbub of madness, for all the upsets, for all the underdog winners and superdog stunners, the 2021 men's NCAA tournament will end with a lot of chalk: two No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 seed and the black sheep of the group, No. 11 seed UCLA.
Indicative of this bizarre COVID-19 year, this tournament has produced a Final Four with three of the top-eight seeds in the event while also featuring a record-tying number of upsets (13 wins by teams seeded five spots worse than their opponent). Top seeds Gonzaga and Baylor are joined by No. 2 seed Houston and, as mentioned, the upstart Bruins, who barely squeaked into this event, even having to win a game in the First Four.
UCLA’s win over Michigan kept alive a streak. It will be the eighth consecutive men's Final Four with a No. 5 or lower seed. The cumulative seeding total of 15, while on the high end of Final Fours historically, is about average for the last decade (14.8). In fact, five Final Fours since 2011 have totaled a bigger number.
The Bruins made this the third time in five years that a double-digit seed advanced to the regional semifinals. They're just the fifth No. 11 seed to advance to this point, joining 1986 LSU, 2006 George Mason, 2011 VCU and 2018 Loyola Chicago.
But what’s so baffling is that three lofty seeds made their way to this point after one of the most chaotic opening weekends of any tournament. UCLA’s win over No. 2 seed Alabama on Sunday night gave the event its 13th upset, as defined by the NCAA. That tied the 2014 and 1985 tournaments at the top of the record books.
How wild had the dance been? For only the third time in men's tournament history, two double-digit seeds advanced to the Elite Eight and for just the second time ever, a No. 15 seed (Oral Roberts) made it to the second weekend. Oregon State, meanwhile, became just the second No. 12 seed to advance to the Elite Eight. Because of the opening weekend’s upsets, the second weekend featured some unique matchups. An 8 vs. 12 seed (Loyola Chicago and Oregon State) and a 3 vs. 15 seed (Arkansas and Oral Roberts) met for each just the second time in its history.
And yet, here we are heading into the Final Four with two top seeds and a No. 2. How?! Maybe the answer lies in the aforementioned matchups. For example, Houston became the first team to beat four double-digit seeds to reach the Final Four. Its path to this weekend included teams seeded 15th, 10th, 11th and 12th. Gonzaga hasn’t faced any team with a seed better than No. 5 (not that it would matter—see our Crystal Ball below).
At any rate, the Final Four will produce a long-awaited national champion. Of the quartet, UCLA is the only one with a men's national title, the last of which came in 1995. Baylor and Gonzaga have each lost once in the men's national title game (1948 to Kentucky and 2017 to North Carolina, respectively), and Houston has lost twice, coming in consecutive years (1984 to Georgetown and 1983 to NC State).
